Tag Archives: Sense Making

Harvard On Forecasting

1 Dec

There is an outstanding, and extensive, resource available on the Harvard University website dedicated to one of my favourite research subjects, Affective Forecasting, by Wilson and Gilbert (the link appears below). I’ve covered Affective Forecasting multiple times on this blog, across various contexts. So, in order to provide a primer for anyone interested in exploring this topic further and clicking the link, I’ll attempt to briefly revisit Affective Forecasting from an organisational perspective.

One of the downsides of having large amounts of experience in a specific domain is that sense making can become fixed (Klein, 2007 for examples). If an experienced decision maker has a run of success, their critical insight is put at risk. This means success can diminish the capacity to draw a conclusion, and then critically analyse that conclusion with questions such as “how could I be wrong? What else could be at play which I might have overlooked?”. The result is that the past and present is projected into the future, uncritically, and used to forecast an outcome or future condition. And this is affective forecasting crudely expressed, a current emotional state is used to predict a future emotional state.

If time pressure and competing demands are added to the mix, then the past is more likely to become a proxy indicator of what will happen in the future (see Weick and Sutcliffe, 2007, Kahneman, 2011, Taleb, 2013 for examples). This has all sorts of consequences for decision making.

Experienced organisational decision makers, should work hard to maintain critical insight despite current demands and pressures. For example, If a leader affectively forecasts and is operating with a non-critical team, then decision traps such as group think can easily take hold.

As the source material will reveal, methods such as encouraging critical reflection on organisational decisions before execution, and consulting someone or a team who has lived your intended future to broaden the frame of reference can prove effective. I’ll leave Wilson and Gilbert to explain the rest.

Link to Wilson and Greening on Affective Forecasting

Reading

Kahneman, D (2011) Thinking Fast and Slow. Penguin

Klein, G. (2007) The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work. Currency

Weick, K. E., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2007). Managing the Unexpected: Resilient Performance in and Age of Uncertainty, Second Edition. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass

Motivating Teams with Focus

26 Sep

Below is an article published by the company In The Moment (link to their website). In The Moment specialize in coaching, team dynamics and organizational behaviour, and in the excellent article below discuss how project focus plays such a positive influence on performance. This might seem obvious, but it is certainly taken for granted in organisations. We have seen in our research that clearly communicated, and understood, objectives are too often assumed. The article drew me to make comparisons between two areas of communication we have researched- 1) sharing objectives and focus, and 2) the cost of not having clear objectives and focus.

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Human Judgement and Cognitive Computing

13 Sep

McKinsey have published an outstanding interview with Gary Klein and Danial Kahneman. The interview is a reflection on Klein and Kahneman’s classic paper- Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree (2009). Whilst the interview reflects on the two authors positions when it comes to intuitive decision making, the prime focus is on executive judgement- is intuition a good basis for top level business decision making? In this article I’ll briefly reflect on some of the key points raised by Kahneman and Klein, and how aspects of cognitive computing could potentially support some of the author’s suggestions.

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When Expertise Works And When It Doesn’t

25 Jul

At this link is a Google talk delivered by psychologist and Nobel Laurette, Daniel Kahneman. The topic of the talk is expert judgement in decision making, and Kahneman discusses the collaborative work he carried out with Gary Klein.

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The Effect of Culture on Decision Making

16 May

In my early days researching organisations, culture was never high on my list of priorities. I was mostly focused on behaviour, cognition and decision making. This meant I was investigating how people make sense of their environment, use their environment as a resource, make choices and update choices (or not) based on environmental feedback. As much as this research tells you, it plays out on a stage which influences both behaviour and cognition. And this stage could be described as culture. In other words, culture, as part of an environment, enables, influences and loads both behaviour and reasoning within an organisation.

I consider culture a vital part of the environment people interact with, use and are influenced by in their decision making in organisational settings.

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Mining the Tacit Database

12 May

If an organisation is trying to use experience as a resource to learn and develop, what’s an effective approach? Every organisation has a “tacit database”, the experience based skills and reasoning people use every day to effectively complete tasks, solve problems, and innovate. The tacit database, however, is combined of taken for granted rules of thumb (heuristics), meaning that people do impressive things, but struggle to explain how they did it.  This leaves an organisation knowing far more than it can say– the tacit database is frequently a hidden asset.

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Why Instructions Rarely Get Followed

19 Apr

All situations involve change. Yet most instructions, plans and procedures are static, and bear little resemblance to how frontline workers actually perform and behave. This could be because most instructions, plans and procedures assume that frontline workers passively process data. Instead, frontline workers interact with data in dynamic ways which adapt plans and instructions to meet the challenges of specific situations. This can leave what actually works well in an organisation invisible.

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Getting Answers from Unusual Places

30 Mar

Sometimes the answer to a problem comes from an unusual place that is right in front of us. This article covers how we can potentially transfer expertise from one disciplinary subject to another.

Many organisations contain expertise which stretches across multiple disciplines. For example, construction, engineering, research and development all contain reservoirs of expertise particular to their discipline’s training, experience, and cultural sense making. All these disciplines apply their expertise to design, deliver and problem solve during the completion of tasks. Problem solving, and dealing with tough non routine cases, are generally the points where expertise becomes most active and innovation takes place (Taleb, 2012, Klein, 2014).

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Labels and Accidents

7 Mar

Organisations, projects and people who operate in dynamic, high risk environments constantly need to update their understanding of a situation. The reason is that dynamic, high risk environments constantly change and they continually surprise.

Fighting a fire, building a hospital or managing diverse projects are all environments where plans and expectations become derailed by reality. Scanning an environment for even the smallest deviation in plans and expectations can ensure that small incidents do not explode into catastrophes. However, one of the biggest barriers to scanning and updating a dynamic, high risk environment are the techniques we turn to simplify our world and make it more manageable- plans and labels. This article discusses how plans and labels can turn a dynamic situation into a potentially dangerous situation.

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Case Study-When Experts Assume too Much

11 Feb

Another one of our projects written up as a case study. The project illustrated how success, coupled with routine and familiarity, can sometimes increase a teams vulnerability to sudden change….

When a team performs well, communication frequently acts as the glue which binds the performance. Members of a top performing team understand how each other make sense of situations, what words and phrases mean within a context, and pass on instructions and intent clearly. When a team member tells a colleague that the risks in a certain procedure are “significant”, they both understand what degree of risk “significant” means in relation to the procedure. There is no mismatched assumptions and second guessing. But problems occur when a regular team member leaves or is sick, and is replaced with someone new to the team. Communication can no longer be taken for granted, but it frequently does in these situations. Assuming someone new will understand the intent behind communication in the same way as someone who has been a team member for two years can be costly at best and catastrophic at worst. Inside of two days we able to provide a solution which ensured that new and temporary staff working in the NHS were able to pick up the intent of a well-established team immediately.

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